Thursday, October 13, 2016

Election Update 2: WHO WILL I VOTE FOR?

I posted about the primaries awhile back and said I would do an update for the general. Well, here it is, my last post about the 2016 election (barring any major shakeups).

In case you couldn’t work it out from my personality, I’m a Democrat. I know, shocking. Why would anyone expect a theatre-loving musician, writer, and artist to be an Obama fan?

But hey… I’m the kind of person who can speak to people I don’t politically match with. Some great people I know are Republican, and we can chat politics without hating each other.

Just had to say that. My personal PSA. I don’t hate you if you’re a Trump voter. 

If you get angry when you find out that someone supports a different political person than yourself, then please close your browser window. This blog is not for you.

Still here? OK.

Spoilers! I’m voting for Hillary Clinton. 
lol ridic
I like Hillary. She reminds me of my aunt (who is a Republican, weirdly enough). I voted for Bernie in the primaries, and I still think he would have beat Trump more assuredly, but I will gladly throw my vote at Hillary in the general.

Will she win? Seems likely now… yeah

During the primaries, I thought that there was no way a Republican wouldn’t win. I thought our next Pres being from the GOP was a given, but now… Every time Trump starts to move up in the polls, he makes fun of a disabled person, attacks the family of a soldier who died for our country, says he doesn’t like prisoners of war because they were captured, or says a judge can’t be fair because of his race… it goes on and on…


In my primaries post, I didn’t even mention him.

I honestly don’t think he even wants the job.

I think The Apprentice was dying and his fame was dwindling and he needed something to put him back on the main stage. Trump is 70. He probably sees himself getting older and older. I bet he’s thinking about his own relevance. What will be his legacy? A TV show that died out? Well, after losing this election, Trump will still have all the fame he accumulated. He could start a political show. He could start a new reality show. This election will make his brand big again, and I think that was ultimately the point.

He obviously looooves campaigning. He’s fantastic at it. He is a charmer, say what you will. He loves the crowds. He loves making them go crazy—and it’s all for him. For the rest of his life, he will be able to go on campaigns for other Republicans. He’ll draw crowds and eat them up. He’ll be able to go on any network television and make commentary about anything. I think that was his purpose in running.


Make Trump Famous Again.

Why else would he do so much to work against him getting elected? The ONLY reason Trump is losing is because of himself. It’s almost like he’s trying hard to put himself right at the point where he definitely won’t win, but he still gets to have fun campaigning to the bitter end.

Trump climbs the polls up and up and then he knocks himself down by opening his mouth. We’re talking about a presidential candidate that talked about his dick size on stage at a debate. After his first matchup with Hillary, he bit into the bait about Miss Universe and told people to watch her porno. Now, he won’t even give a sincere apology for the hot tape of him saying he sexually assaults women because he has starpower.

And that’s only the recent stuff.

screen cap (Oct 13, 2016) from Nate Silver's website

Trump 's MUST WIN states include Florida, Ohio... but also Pennsylvania and North Carolina. There's no path to victory without those... and currently Hillary is leading in all of them, and Pennsylvania is not even close. 

Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio or John Kasich would likely be dominating Clinton in the polls by now, but the GOP found the single candidate that will likely lose in November. Instead of any other candidate, however, Donald Trump is ripping the Republican Party apart and his nomination will likely cost the GOP seats in Congress. What were they thinking? Any other candidate would have been a lock, imo, but Trump is not even a real conservative.

What a gift for the liberals (oh yeah, and the Trumps and the Clintons are friends [#conspiracy])!

Just recently 35+ (THIRTY-FIVE! WOW!) top Republican figureheads denounced Trump over the hot tape and will no longer vote for him. Notable individuals include John McCain, Kasich, Romney, Condoleezza Rice… even Carly Fiorina asked him to drop out. And I only mentioned a handful.

But what really gets me is that Trump’s own wife (who was newlywed and pregnant at the time Trump made the comments) and his own running mate DENOUNCED HIM! I mean, they said they accept his apology… but wow. I also saw rumors of Mike Pence considering dropping out (he won’t, as he’ll be running for Pres in 2020 vs. Kanye), but this does not bode well for him.

And Trump couldn’t even say he was sorry for the comments without blaming Bill Clinton in the same breath. His lack of sincerity will cost him votes. I don’t think his political stunt with attacking Bill Clinton’s past will work, either. Bill is not running.

People, in general, I believe will not be more angry at Hillary for Bill’s mistakes than they are at Trump for Trump’s mistakes. Let’s not forget that Trump is a cheater when it comes to his wives, and the hot tape makes it seem like he also wanted to cheat on his current wife (while she was pregnant! Sheesh!).

But most of what I wrote happened within the last few days. We’re under a month before the election, now. This has staying power. I think the GOP is going to pull money from Trump’s campaign to save Congress, honestly. 


I think he’s legit finished.

The 2nd debate didn’t save him, either, and it needed to.

Debate 1: Hillary won.

VP Debate: Pence won.

Debate 2: Hillary won.

Debate 3… doesn’t matter, honestly.

Unless Hillary faints on stage, Trump is finished. For reals, yo.

He’d have to find a hot tape of Hillary saying she’s a reptilian to turn this thing around. He won’t, because Hillary has survived 30 years of political attacks and nothing has slowed her. Trump is losing because of himself.

By debate 3, there will be only 20 days left. As I write this, 30 days out, the GOP will be pulling Trump’s funding and support to save Congress. Right now, Republican politicians are distancing themselves from Trump to preserve their future political careers. Paul Ryan agrees with all of this. There’s no President alive who will be voting for Trump, not one. After this last debate and controversies, I think undecided people have decided or simply won’t be voting.

Debate 3 will be more of the same. If Hillary does “mediocre” in D3, she will win the election. Hillary would have to truly bomb for it to matter to Trump.

She likely won’t. She’ll likely play it safe, and that’s all she needs to do at this point.

So, back to Hillary

Before she was ever running for office, she was an activist for women, children, and the poor. 

That’s her when she didn’t know the mic was hot. Way before she ever decided to enter true politics or had to maintain face for Bill’s career, Hillary worked to do good things for other people, selflessly.

Say what you will, but I think she’s a good person at her core.

Trump, on the other hand, only ever did things to help Trump. Even when he donated money or supplies during this election, Trump did his good acts for photo ops and publicity. But, I think he’s also lying about how much good he’s done (and if you’ve lied about your charity, that would be a great reason to hide your taxes!).
Hillary Clinton was a law professor. She became a senator, and served in New York during 9/11, she became secretary of state. She’s had the ear of two presidents. She was in the room when they made the call to end Osama bin Laden. She’s not without her mistakes, but she’s human and humans learn the hardest lessons from mistakes. She’s battle tested and hardened. She’s prepared to be the leader of the free world.

Trump has made rookie mistakes during the campaign that could outright throw us into the path of war. He joked about using the Russians to conduct espionage against America (also, his business appears to have close ties to Russia). He threatened his opponent with “2nd Amendment people” and jailing her (which is what tyrants do to political opponents, not Americans). He originally said he’d ban all muslims (Muslims are a huge ally in fighting terrorism in muslim countries, DOH!). He says more countries should obtain nukes. He asks openly if we can use them. He made fun of Gold Star families and POWs. Wow! The leader of our military should NEVER do that. This is the kind of mistakes we cannot afford. And he doesn’t learn from them, as she does. He doesn’t admit to them. He doesn’t apologize and work toward bettering himself. He doesn’t even prepare for the debates, will he prepare for de-escalation talks with Russia?

Trump says she has bad experience, but Trump put his businesses into bankruptcy four times. He scammed people with Trump University. Rode for years not paying taxes after posting a billion dollar loss. That’s bad experience, and all of it can be summed up by the word greed.

Hillary, before politics, helped women, children, and the poor. Trump, before politics, bankrupted businesses and scraped all the money he could into his personal accounts. That’s the difference.

Political paint class

The Republican leaders have known that Hillary would try and become president for a long time now, and I believe the only reason her likeability is low is because of the narrative Republican politicians have been weaving for so many years. I don’t think she’s a bad person. She been tangled in the awfulness of politics, but I don’t think anyone in D.C. avoids that. Think about it, if liberals have been holding onto that Trump tape for 11 years, then imagine how long the Republican politicians have been trying to paint Hillary red. Much longer.

The truth is, after years and years of her political career, Hillary hasn’t been found guilty of anything. The only damage they’ve done is to her perceived personality… which is why she wins the debates. When people don’t know much more than the picture Republican politicians have created about Hillary, of course she seems unlikeable. When Hillary gets on stage and people see her actually talk… they like her. This is why her polls have been skyrocketing after the debates.

She’s not the picture Republican leaders have painted. She’s way better. 

I am not posting this to debate anyone in the comments section. I’m posting this to share my personal thoughts. If you’re going to post rude/aggressive comments toward me about my ideas, I will simply ignore/delete them.  

Please note that in the post above, I tried to make the distinction of Republican politicians vs. the everyday citizens. I believe that almost every everyday Republican voter is a good person, but the political leadership deserves to be scrutinized (for any party).

Republicans and Democrats are two weights on a balance, and the competition between the parties is an important part of continuing freedom. We fundamentally need each other, because when one party rules forever, we are no longer a democracy. Also, it's good to keep a sense of humor about yourself.

As Americans, we’re in this together, when it comes down to it.

P.S.-S. IL Peeps, VOTE FOR Tammy Duckworth! She's awesome!

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